The current conditions component has not shown evidence of sustained growth since early 2022. After settling on the threshold value of 50 points last month, the current gauge once again slipped in July, dropping seven points to 42.9, signaling "worse" conditions overall compared to June. Although reports of "unchanged" conditions remained the most common response, the share of panel members indicating "worse" conditions jumped to nearly 30 percent of all responses in July. Despite this month's underwater reading, some bright spots emerged in the comments with reports of strength in markets such as infrastructure and utility upgrades. However, commenters also pointed out cautionary notes such as reports of customers' future spending plans being put on hold, slowing demand in some segments, and "over inventoried positions being worked down."  EBCI results 202307nm

Rebounding from its post-lockdown low of 40 points in May, the current conditions component leapt 10 point to a score of 50 in June. At 50 points, the current component suggests unchanged conditions compared to the prior month, which is unsurprising since 86 percent of respondents reported “unchanged” conditions in June. Comments largely reflected the quantitative measure, with some supporting the sense of status quo, along with a sprinkling of positive sentiment such as “new orders steady,” mixed with less upbeat assessments: “some slowdown continues in commercial and residential segments.”  EBCI results 202306nm

Dipping to its lowest reading since the immediate aftermath of the lockdown era recession, the current conditions component shed 3 points from April’s score to hit 40.0 this month. The share of respondents indicating “unchanged” conditions reached 53 percent, and less than 15 percent of May’s panelists noted “better” conditions. In some cases, reports of unchanged conditions may have reflected a sense of healthy markets remaining so: “order intake has increased vs Q4 2022 and is on par with Q1 2023.” The main concerns pointing to worsened conditions included distributor destocking and worries about the debt ceiling.  EBCI results 202305nm

After a momentary bump into expansionary territory in February, followed by a brief hold at “unchanged” last month, the current conditions component signaled cooling in April with a nearly 7-point retreat to 43.3. The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions declined precipitously this month, and although several respondents noted “better” conditions, many more indicated that conditions were “worse” in April. Comments displayed evidence of this dichotomy as one described “slowing demand across most… segments,” even as another declared “records and more records.”  EBCI results 202304nm

The current conditions component’s move into expansionary territory was unambiguous last month for the first time in almost a year as it hit 63.3 points. That surge of confidence was short-lived, with March’s reading falling back to 50, suggesting that conditions were unchanged from the prior month. The share of respondents who indicated “better” conditions declined significantly to a level on par with those who reported “worse” conditions. Much of the commentary supported the numerical result, with many noting mixed conditions to include overall strong business activity but softening in certain end markets becoming noticeable and concern about supply chain issues still in play.  EBCI results 202303nm

After spending nearly all of 2022 in unchanged or even contractionary territory, the current conditions component improved dramatically just two months into 2023 as the February reading added 17 points to January’s score to reach 63.3. The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions remained the majority position in the latest iteration, but fully one-third of respondents indicated “better” conditions in February, which help push the current metric into the growth range for the first time since last April. The move toward electrification and infrastructure investments, as illustrated in one comment that described “strong continued demand in EV, utility, and data centers,” played a role as did strong orders activity and easing supply chain pressures.  EBCI results 202302nm

In 2022, the current conditions component showed expansionary signals only twice, last breaking into growth territory in April. The December reading of 50, which signaled unchanged conditions from the previous month, teased the possibility of an expansionary environment ahead, but January’s score slid back to 46.4, indicating a modest slowdown. More than three-quarters of respondents noted “unchanged” conditions, and just seven percent reported that the business environment had gotten “better,” compared to the prior month. Comments pointed to some degree of turbulence facing electrical manufacturers, with softness in residential and industrial markets but strong demand elsewhere and orders backlogs that remain stable.   EBCI results 202301nm