The current conditions component returned to presumed growth this month after hitting a plateau in August. The nearly 8-point expansion to 57.7 in September was driven largely by a decline in the share of respondents that reported worse conditions compared to the previous month. September’s score marked the third consecutive month in the 50s, suggesting that conditions remained conducive to expansion but at a bit less robust pace than in much of the past year. Comments reflected the opposing forces at play in the macroeconomy, with unresolved supply chain problems competing against unflagging demand. EBCI results 202109nm

Hitting its lowest reading since coming out of the pandemic-induced recession, the current conditions component lost just over seven points from July’s result to land at 50 this month. An equal share of respondents noted better conditions and worse conditions, but a substantial majority of panel members, 60 percent, rated the current business as unchanged from a month ago. Comments were uniformly negative with common concerns centering on difficulty in finding qualified labor, inflationary pressures, and broad supply constraints. EBCI results 202108nm

The current conditions component slid nearly 13 points to 57.1 in July from 70 the month before, leaving it still in positive territory but with the lowest reading since last October. At 57 percent, the majority of respondents considered July's conditions unchanged from the previous month’s, but a noticeable uptick in the share of responses noting worse conditions helped claw the current component back from its recent loftier readings. Comments were relatively negative in tone with all of them touching in one form or another on lingering supply chain woes. Concern about the potential of an unwelcome change in the pandemic’s trajectory also found its way back into the comments.  EBCI results 202107nm

A slight improvement in confidence boosted the current conditions index from a reading of 65.4 last month to 70 points in June. The share of panelists reporting better conditions increased, as did those indicating unchanged conditions. Concurrently, the number of respondents indicating worse conditions than in the prior month dropped to zero. Although one comment, regarding projects that were previously on hold and are now proceeding, was quite positive, most reflected a bit of ambivalence, especially regarding the effects of supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures. EBCI results 202106nm

Sentiment regarding current conditions appeared to take a breather this month after reaching a high-water mark in April. With responses of “unchanged” conditions making up a majority of the EBCI panel’s input, the current component retreated 24 points to a still-robust reading of 65.4 in May. EBCI results 202105nm

Mirroring reports of a broadly surging manufacturing sector, the current conditions component reached its all-time most expansive reading in April, hitting 89.5 points. The nearly 10-point increase from the previous month resulted in part from a drop in the share of participants who reported unchanged conditions, with additional impetus from having no respondents indicate worse conditions in April. Although the quantitative score was undoubtedly upbeat, comments suggested that some categories remained sluggish, while others faced supply constraints in trying to keep up with demand.  EBCI results 202104nm

For the tenth consecutive month, the EBCI current conditions component topped 50 points, indicating conditions conducive to growth. March's reading of 80 built on an already robust 64.3 in February and was driven by two-thirds of survey respondents' indicating better conditions. Fewer than 10 percent noted worse conditions while the remainder saw things as unchanged. Electroindustry shipments and new orders data reported by the Census Bureau buttressed this result as both have grown rapidly in the two most recent monthly reports. Some panelists pointed to slower or delayed activity, but most noted improvements in the economic environment and on the pandemic front. EBCI results 202103nm

Although we noticed some concern about the ephemeral nature of optimism regarding business conditions, the current conditions component expanded to 64.3 in February, compared to 60 last month. The majority of respondents noted unchanged conditions, and the share indicating worse conditions edged down slightly, leading to the modest improvement seen in the topline measure.  EBCI results 202102nm

The re-imposition of some business restrictions in response to an early-January surge in COVID-19 related hospitalizations, combined with a slower-than-expected vaccine rollout, reined in the panel’s expectations, which otherwise appeared poised to charge ahead. Alongside a slight reduction in the share of respondents reporting worse conditions, a majority of respondents reported an unchanged business environment in January, pushing the current conditions component to 60.0, a nearly imperceptible increase over December’s 57.7 reading.    EBCI results 202101nm