After a momentary bump into expansionary territory in February, followed by a brief hold at “unchanged” last month, the current conditions component signaled cooling in April with a nearly 7-point retreat to 43.3. The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions declined precipitously this month, and although several respondents noted “better” conditions, many more indicated that conditions were “worse” in April. Comments displayed evidence of this dichotomy as one described “slowing demand across most… segments,” even as another declared “records and more records.”  EBCI results 202304nm

The current conditions component’s move into expansionary territory was unambiguous last month for the first time in almost a year as it hit 63.3 points. That surge of confidence was short-lived, with March’s reading falling back to 50, suggesting that conditions were unchanged from the prior month. The share of respondents who indicated “better” conditions declined significantly to a level on par with those who reported “worse” conditions. Much of the commentary supported the numerical result, with many noting mixed conditions to include overall strong business activity but softening in certain end markets becoming noticeable and concern about supply chain issues still in play.  EBCI results 202303nm

After spending nearly all of 2022 in unchanged or even contractionary territory, the current conditions component improved dramatically just two months into 2023 as the February reading added 17 points to January’s score to reach 63.3. The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions remained the majority position in the latest iteration, but fully one-third of respondents indicated “better” conditions in February, which help push the current metric into the growth range for the first time since last April. The move toward electrification and infrastructure investments, as illustrated in one comment that described “strong continued demand in EV, utility, and data centers,” played a role as did strong orders activity and easing supply chain pressures.  EBCI results 202302nm

In 2022, the current conditions component showed expansionary signals only twice, last breaking into growth territory in April. The December reading of 50, which signaled unchanged conditions from the previous month, teased the possibility of an expansionary environment ahead, but January’s score slid back to 46.4, indicating a modest slowdown. More than three-quarters of respondents noted “unchanged” conditions, and just seven percent reported that the business environment had gotten “better,” compared to the prior month. Comments pointed to some degree of turbulence facing electrical manufacturers, with softness in residential and industrial markets but strong demand elsewhere and orders backlogs that remain stable.   EBCI results 202301nm